5 Spring 2026 Market Stats Every Agent Should Use in Referral Conversations

There's a moment in every referral conversation where credibility is either earned or lost. It usually happens right after someone says, "So how's the market?" Most agents fumble it with vague platitudes — "It's competitive out there" or "Now's a great time to buy." The agents who turn that question into a referral pipeline treat it as an opening to demonstrate expertise.

Here are five data points shaping the spring 2026 market — and exactly how to deploy them in referral conversations that stick.

1. Existing Home Sales Are Up 6.3% Year-Over-Year

After two years of lock-in effect paralysis, sellers are finally moving. The combination of stabilizing rates in the low 6% range and accumulated life changes — new jobs, growing families, downsizing retirees — has thawed the inventory freeze that defined 2024 and 2025.

**The referral angle:** When a past client mentions a neighbor putting up a sign, don't just nod. Say: *"That tracks — we're seeing a 6% jump in listings nationally, and locally it's even stronger. If you know anyone who's been on the fence, this spring window is real. I'd love an introduction."* Specificity beats generality every time.

2. First-Time Buyers Now Represent 34% of Purchases

That's the highest share since 2018, driven largely by millennials who delayed homeownership and Gen Z entering the market. First-time buyers are also the most referral-dependent segment — 42% of them chose their agent based on a recommendation from someone they trust, according to NAR's latest buyer profile.

**The referral angle:** This stat is gold for conversations with mortgage lenders, financial advisors, and even parents of twenty-somethings. Frame it as: *"First-timers are flooding in, and they overwhelmingly pick agents through word of mouth. If your clients mention house-hunting, I'm the person to send them to."*

3. Average Days on Market: 38 (Down from 52 Last Spring)

Properties are moving faster, which signals confidence but also creates urgency. Sellers who wait too long risk missing the spring surge. Buyers who aren't pre-approved and agent-ready lose out on competitive listings.

**The referral angle:** Urgency is a referral accelerator. When you share this stat with your sphere — through a quick market update email, a social post, or a casual conversation — you're giving people a reason to act *now* rather than "someday." And when they act, they need an agent. Position yourself as the one who saw it coming.

4. Referral-Based Transactions Close 12 Days Faster Than Cold Leads

This one's from Reaferral's own transaction data, and it reinforces what experienced agents already know: referred clients come in warmer, more trusting, and more decisive. They've already been pre-sold on you by someone they trust, which means fewer objections, shorter decision cycles, and smoother closings.

**The referral angle:** Share this stat with referral partners — other agents, lenders, attorneys — as proof that referrals aren't just nice-to-have. They're operationally superior. *"When you send someone my way, they close almost two weeks faster than a cold lead. That's better for the client and better for everyone's pipeline."*

5. 73% of Sellers Say They'd Use Their Agent Again — But Only 25% Actually Do

This is the most important stat on the list, and it should haunt every agent who relies on repeat business. The intention is there. The follow-through isn't. Why? Because agents disappear after closing. No check-ins, no market updates, no value-add touchpoints. The relationship evaporates, and when that seller's coworker needs an agent two years later, your name doesn't come up.

**The referral angle:** This gap is your opportunity. A simple quarterly touchpoint — a market stat email, a home anniversary note, a neighborhood comp update — keeps you in the consideration set. The agents who close that 73-to-25 gap are the ones building referral businesses that compound year after year.

The Bigger Picture

Market stats aren't just cocktail party ammunition. They're trust signals. When you cite a specific number in a referral conversation, you're communicating three things simultaneously: you pay attention, you understand the market, and you take your business seriously. That's the kind of agent people refer.

The spring 2026 market is giving agents real momentum for the first time in years. The question is whether you'll ride it passively or use it to build referral relationships that outlast any single season.

Start with one stat. Work it into your next five conversations. Track who responds. Then follow up.

That's how pipelines get built.