Pending Home Sales as a Leading Referral Indicator: What the Data Tells Smart Agents

Most agents check pending home sales data to gauge market direction. The best agents use it to time their referral outreach with surgical precision.

Pending home sales — contracts signed but not yet closed — represent a 30-to-60-day window into the future. That window is pure gold for agents who understand referral timing.

Why Pending Sales Data Matters for Referrals

When pending home sales tick upward in a market, it signals something specific: buyers are active, inventory is moving, and agents on the ground are busy. That's exactly when those agents need help — and exactly when a well-timed referral introduction lands hardest.

The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) dropped 5.5 percent in December 2025 after four consecutive months of gains. Agents who tracked that shift in real time were already adjusting their referral strategy while competitors were still reading last month's headlines.

"I watch pending sales in my top 15 referral markets like a hawk," says a veteran agent running a referral-heavy practice in the Southeast. "When pending sales jump in Boise or Raleigh, I'm reaching out to my contacts there that same week. Not to ask for business — to share the data and start a conversation."

The Three Signals That Trigger Referral Action

**Rising pending sales in a specific market.** This is your cue to reconnect with agents in that area. They're getting busier, which means they're more likely to need overflow help — and more likely to reciprocate referrals to stay top of mind with their own network.

**Declining pending sales in your home market.** Counterintuitive, but a slowdown locally is the perfect time to strengthen outbound referral relationships. When your pipeline softens, referral income from other markets becomes a critical revenue stabilizer. Agents who wait until they're desperate to build these relationships are already too late.

**Divergence between markets.** When one metro area's pending sales are surging while another's are flat, migration patterns are shifting. Follow the data to where your clients might be heading. If pending sales in Phoenix are climbing while Chicago's are stagnant, there's a good chance some of your Chicago sphere is considering a move.

How to Put This Into Practice

Start by identifying the five markets where you send or receive the most referrals. Set up monthly tracking — even a simple spreadsheet works — using data from NAR, Redfin, or your local MLS. You don't need a data science degree. You need a pattern.

Then build a habit: on the first Monday of each month, review the numbers and send a short message to your top referral partners in markets showing movement. Something like:

*"Hey — saw pending sales in your area jumped 8% last month. Guessing you're getting busy. I've got a couple relocating your way this spring. Want to grab 15 minutes to sync up?"*

That message does three things simultaneously. It demonstrates market intelligence. It signals you have business to send. And it opens a natural conversation about reciprocal referrals.

The Compound Effect

Agents who track pending sales data as a referral trigger report one consistent outcome: faster response rates from referral partners. When you lead with data instead of "just checking in," you immediately differentiate yourself from the dozens of other agents in their inbox.

Over 12 months, this approach compounds. Your partners start associating you with market intelligence. They bring you into conversations earlier. They refer their own clients your way because they trust your judgment.

The data is free. The discipline to act on it is what separates a referral-rich practice from a referral-dependent one.

Start tracking. Start reaching out. The pending sales numbers are already telling you where the opportunities are — the only question is whether you're listening.